The next federal highway bill will almost certainly be written in 2027, by a House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee with a new chair. The chair, Sam Graves, is retiring, so that was true whoever won on November 3. For a civil firm, that means federal transportation work in 2027 looks like 2026: flat formula funding and no new programs to chase.
I've been asked some version of "does the election change our pipeline?" all fall. The honest answer is that it changes who writes the bill. It doesn't change when the money shows up, and the "when" is what drives a pursuit plan.
Why Does the Highway Bill Start Over in January?
Three facts, all true before a single vote was counted.
- The House chair is leaving. Graves announced his retirement on March 27. He leaves when the 119th Congress ends in January.
- The Senate has no bill. Senate committee chair Shelley Moore Capito told Politico on September 15 that she did not expect to release text until after the November 3 elections, according to AutoInc. As of Holland & Knight's October 9 review, no Senate committee had produced text.
- Unpassed bills die with the Congress. The House bill, the BUILD America 250 Act (H.R. 8870), cleared committee 62-2 in May and has had no floor vote. Any bill not enacted by early January expires and has to be introduced again in the 120th Congress.
Speaker Johnson has said he hopes to bring the bill to the floor after the elections. Even if the House passes it in the lame duck, the Senate would have to write, mark up and pass its own version, and the two would have to agree, in about five weeks. Holland & Knight's read is that Congress "is likely to enact another surface transportation extension into 2027." I agree.
Who Chairs the Committee Next?
Democrats won the House on November 3, as projected by NBC News and CBS News. That puts Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA), the committee's top Democrat, in line for the gavel. Before the vote, AutoInc wrote that Larsen "would be positioned to become chairman" and has called reauthorization a top priority. Committee chairs are set when the new Congress organizes in January.
For pursuit planning, the name matters less than the fact of a change. A new chair sets their own priorities and takes the bill back through committee. BUILD America 250's roughly $580 billion and its program list become a starting draft, not a forecast.
Why December 11 Still Matters More Than November 3
The current extension, H.R. 6500, runs surface transportation programs through December 11, 2026. That's the date to watch.
| Scenario on December 11 | How likely | What it does to your pursuits |
|---|---|---|
| Another extension into 2027 | The expected case | Formula work continues flat. No new programs. Plan 2027 like 2026 |
| A full bill passes in the lame duck | Unlikely, per analysts | New programs exist on paper. Solicitations follow months later |
| A lapse | Low, but not zero | New federal obligations pause. Solicitations tied to them slow |
Firms tend to plan around the middle row. The last cycle shows why that's early. The FAST Act expired in September 2020, got a one-year extension, and its replacement, the IIJA, was signed in November 2021. New programs from that bill reached firms as grant notices and solicitations over the following year, not the following month. Our IIJA extension analysis covers what a flat extension does to each funding lane. The leadership change adds months to the end of it.
What Should a Civil Firm Change in Its 2027 Pipeline?
- Date every pursuit by its funding source. Formula-funded work from state DOTs, counties, cities and MPOs is 2027 work. Anything that depends on a program a new bill would create is 2028 work at the earliest.
- Drop any 2027 growth line that assumes a new bill. If a hiring plan or revenue target counts on a federal step-up next year, take it out before it drives a decision.
- Spend the capacity on vehicles that already exist. State DOT prequalification and on-call contracts don't wait on Congress. A seat on an on-call is worth more in a flat year than a bet on a new program.
- Score funding risk in go/no-go, without overcorrecting. A pursuit funded by one discretionary grant carries more risk in 2027 than one funded by formula dollars. Our funding concentration scoring shows how to weight it.
- Check again after December 11. The end date of the next extension is your next planning date.
The firms that grow in a flat year don't do it on a bigger federal bet. They win a larger share of the work already funded, which comes down to how many good submittals the team can put out.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will there be a new highway bill in 2026?
Probably not. The House bill, BUILD America 250, has not had a floor vote, and the Senate has not released text. Analysts expect Congress to pass another extension before the current one ends December 11, 2026, and to write the next bill in 2027.
Who will chair the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee in 2027?
Chair Sam Graves is retiring when the 119th Congress ends. Democrats won the House on November 3, which puts Rep. Rick Larsen, the committee's top Democrat, in line to chair it. The new Congress sets committee leadership in January.
What happens to the BUILD America 250 Act in January?
If it isn't enacted before the 119th Congress ends, it expires. A new version would have to be introduced in the 120th Congress and go back through committee under the new chair. Its text would likely serve as a starting point.
What happens if surface transportation programs lapse on December 11?
Funds already obligated to contracts keep flowing. What stops is the authority to obligate new federal funds to new projects, so new solicitations tied to those programs slow or pause. Congress has avoided past lapses with short extensions, often attached to a spending bill.